According to North Korea, a spy satellite was launched into orbit. That might strengthen its military, according to analysts.

North Korea announced the launch of its first spy satellite, “Malligyong-1,” using a new carrier rocket named “Chollima-1,” as reported by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). This development is seen as a significant enhancement of North Korea’s military capabilities, potentially enabling more accurate targeting of adversaries’ forces.

However, neither South Korea, the United States, nor Japan, all of whom are experiencing heightened military tensions with North Korea, have confirmed the satellite’s successful orbit entry.

The launch has been met with international criticism. South Korea labeled it a “clear violation” of a UN Security Council resolution that prohibits North Korea from utilizing ballistic missile technology. As a response, South Korea partially suspended a bilateral agreement with North Korea that limited reconnaissance and surveillance activities along the demilitarized zone (DMZ).

The rocket was launched in a southerly direction, believed to have flown over Japan’s Okinawa prefecture. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the launch, emphasizing the threat it poses to Japan’s safety and reaffirming his commitment to collaborate with the US and South Korea in response to North Korea’s actions.

Seoul’s military has been closely monitoring the launch with the US, deploying Aegis destroyers from South Korea, the US, and Japan to track the rocket. Details of the launch are currently under comprehensive analysis.

Japanese Defense Minister Hiroyuki Miyazawa stated that Japan is still assessing whether the North Korean satellite successfully entered orbit.

The third attempt to launch a satellite

Pyongyang’s recent attempt to launch a spy satellite comes after two unsuccessful efforts earlier this year. The first attempt in late May saw the rocket’s second stage malfunction and crash into the sea. North Korea’s state media, KCNA, attributed this failure to issues with the new engine system’s reliability and stability, as well as unstable fuel.

A second attempt in August also failed due to an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight. This rocket disintegrated into multiple parts, falling into the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean, as confirmed by Japanese officials.

After these failures, North Korea’s Ambassador to the UN, Kim Song, defended the satellite program at a UN Security Council meeting. He insisted that pursuing the spy satellite program was a legitimate exercise of North Korea’s sovereignty and denied any intentions of acquiring intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology through these launches.

The latest, third attempt on Tuesday night was anticipated and was part of Pyongyang’s declared plan to enhance its reconnaissance capabilities, especially focusing on South Korea. The National Aerospace Development Administration of North Korea indicated plans to launch several reconnaissance satellites in a short time frame, as reported by KCNA.

North Korea has framed the development of its satellite program as a self-defense measure against provocations from the US, South Korea, and Japan. This stance comes amid Pyongyang’s criticism of the US for its potential arms sales to Japan and military equipment to South Korea, which North Korea perceives as a direct threat.

A military uplift for North Korea

Analysts highlight the significant military benefits North Korea could gain from successfully launching even a single satellite into orbit. Carl Schuster, a former director at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, notes that a functioning satellite would enhance North Korea’s military command, control, communication, intelligence, and surveillance capabilities. This improvement would be particularly advantageous in coordinating forces during conflicts.

Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace adds that the satellite could aid in military targeting and damage assessment, areas where North Korea previously lacked capability. Panda also emphasizes that the knowledge gained from this successful launch would be instrumental in developing future satellites, potentially leading to a robust network of Earth observation satellites. This would significantly enhance North Korea’s strategic situational awareness.

However, there are also cautions regarding the actual capabilities of the recently launched satellite. Some experts argue that South Korea’s potential resumption of intelligence gathering along the DMZ, including surveillance drone operations, might yield more valuable intelligence than what North Korea can achieve with its nascent satellite program. Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, suggests that North Korea’s rudimentary satellite program might not be as beneficial as the surveillance advancements of South Korea.

Russian ties?

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik recently stated that North Korea appears to have significantly improved its rocket engine technology, potentially with assistance from Russia. This statement followed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia in September, where he and President Vladimir Putin toured a Russian space rocket launch site. During this visit, Putin expressed a willingness to support North Korea’s space and satellite development.

However, Ankit Panda, an expert in nuclear policy, advises caution in assuming that Russian aid and advice were pivotal for North Korea’s successful third satellite launch. Panda points out that the time frame between Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia and the recent launch suggests it’s unlikely North Korea could have received and implemented technical assistance from Russia so rapidly. He also emphasizes North Korea’s own growing capabilities in this field, indicating that their progress may largely be a result of their own technological advancements and expertise.