For an incumbent, Joe Biden is facing a nearly historic disadvantage.

Electoral analysts, including myself, often use cautious language like “may” and “could” when discussing polls, particularly for potential matchups in the 2024 general election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This is to avoid jumping to conclusions, but current trends indicate that Trump holds a slight yet noticeable advantage over Biden.

Recent high-quality national surveys from CBS News/YouGov, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, and Quinnipiac University all show Trump leading Biden by 2 to 4 points among registered or likely voters. While each of these polls individually may not be conclusive due to their margins of error, collectively, they suggest that Biden faces a significant challenge. Historically, incumbents have led their opponents by an average of over 10 points around a year before the election, as seen with nearly every incumbent since Franklin Roosevelt in 1943. This trend was true for Barack Obama against Mitt Romney in November 2011, countering some Democrats’ claims that Obama was behind at this point in his campaign.

Interestingly, the only incumbent to trail in polls at this stage was Donald Trump in 2019, when he was about 10 points behind Biden. What makes the current situation remarkable is that Trump, during the entire 2020 campaign cycle, never held a lead in any national poll that met CNN’s publication standards, either in average or individually.

This cycle, there have been 17 surveys where Trump has a higher vote share than Biden. Additionally, in key swing states like Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Trump is leading in at least one poll, a contrast to his 2020 campaign where he never led in these crucial states. This shift indicates a notable change in the electoral landscape as we move closer to the 2024 election.

What changed for Biden?

The discussion about the challenges President Biden is facing in a potential electoral rematch with Donald Trump seems to focus on various factors. The primary concern raised is not a divide within the Democratic Party but rather the perception of Biden’s age among voters. Polls from states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan indicate that a significant majority of voters, including many Democrats, view Biden as too old to be an effective president. This sentiment has grown since 2020, when fewer voters held this view.

The decline in Biden’s support among moderates compared to 2020 is also notable. While he previously had a stronger lead in this group, recent polls show a reduced margin. This shift might be attributed to various factors, but age seems to be a particularly influential one.

Interestingly, while Biden faces scrutiny over his age, a smaller percentage of voters consider Trump too old for the presidency, despite the fact that Trump would also be the oldest president ever to win election if he were to win again. The challenge for Biden, then, seems to be convincing more voters that his age is not a barrier to effective leadership, especially in comparison to Trump. If he’s unable to shift this perception, it could significantly impact his chances in the election, potentially leading to a rare instance of a president being elected to nonconsecutive terms, a feat last achieved by Grover Cleveland.