Germany indicates that the EU is expected to fall short of its goal to provide 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine as the conflict continues.

Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, expressed doubts on Tuesday about the European Union’s ability to fulfill its commitment to supply Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia, especially with winter approaching.

Pistorius, speaking before a defense ministers meeting in Brussels, noted that the target of 1 million rounds might not be met. He mentioned that EU member states are collaborating with the industrial sector to increase production capabilities.

This commitment to supply Ukraine with ammunition within 12 months was agreed upon by EU member states in March.

Pistorius’ statement follows remarks made by Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. Borrell indicated that the EU might not achieve its year-end goals for ammunition production to support Kyiv but mentioned that steps are being taken to enhance production capacity.

In the interim, Borrell noted, military forces have been requested to contribute approximately 300,000 rounds from their current inventories. He also mentioned that several production contracts had been initiated, though the speed of ammunition manufacturing remains a factor.

Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, expressed doubts on Tuesday about the European Union’s ability to fulfill its commitment to supply Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia, especially with winter approaching.

Pistorius, speaking before a defense ministers meeting in Brussels, noted that the target of 1 million rounds might not be met. He mentioned that EU member states are collaborating with the industrial sector to increase production capabilities.

This commitment to supply Ukraine with ammunition within 12 months was agreed upon by EU member states in March.

Pistorius’ statement follows remarks made by Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. Borrell indicated that the EU might not achieve its year-end goals for ammunition production to support Kyiv but mentioned that steps are being taken to enhance production capacity.

In the interim, Borrell noted, military forces have been requested to contribute approximately 300,000 rounds from their current inventories. He also mentioned that several production contracts had been initiated, though the speed of ammunition manufacturing remains a factor.

Sound the alarm

Both Ukraine and Russia are in urgent need of replenishing substantial quantities of ammunition as the intense conflict persists in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. Reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service indicate that North Korea has supplied over 1 million shells to Russia since early August. Simultaneously, the US is escalating its ammunition production to support Ukraine.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, emphasized Kyiv’s critical need for the EU to enhance its ammunition supply capabilities for the Ukrainian military. He highlighted this pressing issue during a television appearance on Monday, stating that Ukraine is actively and emphatically seeking the EU’s attention regarding ammunition supply. Kuleba acknowledged the political support from the EU but pointed to the inadequate state of the defense industry, capable of producing the necessary volume of shells, and challenges related to storage and international contract negotiations.

Since the conflict’s onset, there has been an open concern among Western allies about their capacity to meet Ukraine’s ammunition demands and their own production capabilities to replenish depleting stocks.

Post-Cold War, Western production of conventional ammunition declined as the focus shifted to modernizing equipment, with few anticipating another large-scale land war in Europe. Nick Witney, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, described this as a situation where European countries prioritized appearances while neglecting substantive stockpiles.

This lack of preparation partly explains the low ammunition stocks at the start of the Ukraine conflict and why the situation didn’t improve significantly in the following year. Factors affecting this include production limitations that can’t be rapidly scaled up and the high costs and time required for significant production increases. Tom Waldwyn, a research associate for defense procurement at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, highlighted that private companies, accountable to shareholders, haven’t maintained excess capacity for equipment in low demand, making it challenging to meet a sudden spike in demand in the short to medium term.